Closed beta · Invite only
Get in the room.
The prediction market for the people building consumer brands. Sharper than Twitter. More focused than Polymarket.
YESNO trading on consumer-brand outcomes: launches, M&A, retail wins, regulatory calls. Built for operators, calibrated by Brier. Play money. Real signal.
Operators in the room
267
Active markets
544
Trades placed
25,126
Resolved
63
- Investor4h ago
- Investor5h ago
- Founder5h ago
- Founder6h ago
- Founder6h ago
- Founder7h ago
- Broker7h ago
- Buyer7h ago
Operators trading their own beat.
Every position is public. Every track record is real. A buyer at a category-leading retailer can take NO on a brand showing up in their store next quarter without putting their job on the line.
Top calibrated
@reesefisher
86% win rate across 7 resolved markets
+119 SP
Realized P/L
@briarkim
50% win · 2 mkts
+73 SP
@reesebennett
100% win · 1 mkt
+63 SP
@sashashah
100% win · 2 mkts
+63 SP
@wrencarrillo
100% win · 3 mkts
+48 SP
@wrenortiz
83% win · 6 mkts
+40 SP
Live snapshot from /leaderboard · calibration scores at /accuracy.
Question. Price. Deadline. Settle.
Will Magic Spoon hit 10,000 Walmart doors by Q1 2026?
Resolves YES if Magic Spoon achieves distribution in 10,000+ U.S. Walmart doors (Supercenter, Neighborhood Market, Sam's Club) on any single day between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2026. Source: Walmart store-locator, SPINS / Circana scanner data, or Magic Spoon press release.
- The question. Plain English. One yes-or-no answer. Hard deadline.
- The price.72% YES means the crowd puts odds at 72%. Buying YES at 22% when you think it's 50% is the trade.
- The criteria. Printed verbatim, read literally at resolution. Ambiguity voids and refunds.
- The source.Every market names where we'll read the outcome. SEC, FDA, retailer press, scanner data.
0.1287
We measure who's right. Not who's loud.
Volume isn't skill. The Brier score grades every trade against the actual outcome. Lower is better. Zero is perfect. Always-50/50 is 0.25.
Top-decile insider
0.13
The sharps in the room
Median trader
0.25
The room average
Coin flip
0.25
Pure noise
Insider calibration · predicted vs realized
YES probability, 0 – 100%What you'd be joining.
A small operator room with a real scoreboard. Play money, public track records, public source-of-truth on every resolution. Handles are pseudonymous so you can call your own category honestly.
What you get
- 1,000 Sugar Points starting balance, replenished to the floor.
- A public, calibrated track record across every category you cover.
- A comment platform where every opinion has a skin-in-the-game receipt.
- News desk + closing-soon push so you don't miss your moments.
- Embeddable profile to drop into your LinkedIn or X bio.
What we ask
- Trade your beat. Sharp, not loud.
- Stay in your area of competence. Brier is honest.
- Flag bad criteria before close, not after.
- Keep handles private. Treat the room as confidential.
267
operators in the room
All calibrated against the record. Every market resolves from a public source: SEC, FDA, retailer press, scanner data. No house edge, no opaque oracle, no surprise rules.
Closed beta · Invites weekly
267 operators are already calling these markets. Pick your beat.